The evolution and spread of a pandemic isn't random. All pandemics, including COVID-19, have a life cycle made up of set phases. They can be tracked through their acceleration phase, inflection point, deceleration phase and ending. The phases can vary, based on the pandemic and country, as government, healthcare and policy changes heavily influence how diseases evolve. Yet, they also provide a basis for an estimation of how pandemics will progress and eventually end.
Researchers from Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) have created a SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) based-mathematical model and fed it data on confirmed infections, tests conducted, and deaths recorded, to estimate the life cycle of COVID-19 and generate a best guess of probable dates on when it believes the coronavirus disease will “end”.
The predictions provide three estimates of end dates:
- the date to reach 97% of total expected cases
- the date to reach 99% of total expected cases
- the date to reach the last expected case
Here are the projections on some countries in Southeast Asia.
It projected that Singapore has a 97% chance of seeing the virus end on May 9, 99% on May 15, and 100% on June 10.
It estimated that Malaysia has a 97% chance to see an end to the virus by May 6, 99% on May 19, and 100% on July 8.
One of the Southeast Asian countries which have been hit hard, the algorithm projected that Indonesia will only recover on July 30.
Philippines is 97% likely to see the virus end by May 12, 99% by May 23, and might be 100% virus-free by July 8.
Cases in Vietnam has plateaued and the algorithm projected that the country will be virus-free on May 14.
But looking at the charts, we all have one question in our minds: Just how accurate is it?
The SUTD team stress that the model and data are "inaccurate to the complex, evolving and heterogeneous realities of different countries" and that "predictions are uncertain by nature." This means that the predictions are open to change, and the dates provided are far from definite. Any predictions should be read in combination with current events and governmental policy changes.
So please take the figures with a grain of salt, because it can't take into account virus mutation, population movement, and just general human stupidity.